Date of Project

11-17-2025

Document Type

Honors Thesis

School Name

W. Fielding Rubel School of Business

Department

Economics

Major Advisor

Dr. Hongwei Song

Second Advisor

Dr. Frank Raymond

Abstract

Argentina’s recurrent economic crises and its contentious relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have profoundly shaped the country’s political economy and contributed to the emergence of Kirchnerist populism in the post-2001 era. This thesis investigates the intertwined effects of external financial pressures and domestic governance failures, arguing that Argentina’s instability cannot be explained by either factor alone but rather by their evolving interaction. To assess these dynamics, the study integrates a broad literature review with an original empirical analysis using a time-series panel model of Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela. The findings reveal that IMF lending exhibits a strong and statistically significant positive relationship with central government debt, supporting the hypothesis that IMF involvement meaningfully influences sovereign debt trajectories for these three countries. Additional variables including GDP growth, voter turnout, and foreign direct investment, also demonstrate varying levels of statistical significance, though some coefficients diverge from theoretical expectations, suggesting the influence of political and structural volatility. In contrast, the analysis does not find sufficient empirical support for a significant relationship between populism and central government debt with a p-value of 25%, possibly due to lack of data limiting the model. By situating Argentina within a broader Latin American context, the thesis offers a nuanced account of the forces driving its persistent economic turmoil and the rise of populist responses, contributing to wider studies on international financial intervention and economic governance in the region.

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Available for download on Tuesday, November 17, 2026

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