Date of Project

4-7-2025

Document Type

Honors Thesis

School Name

W. Fielding Rubel School of Business

Department

Economics

Major Advisor

Dr. Frank Raymond

Second Advisor

Dr Bradley Stevenson

Abstract

The vast majority of econometric research regarding black markets focuses on the supply. Relatively little information is definitively shown in academic literature regarding the drivers of demand for black markets. This project seeks to identify factors of demand for black market goods and services. First, this paper gives a brief definition of the broad definition of black markets, before specifically defining the scope of individual markets which will be included in this project. Next, there is a brief review of recent literature on the U.S. black market in order to determine prime candidates for factors of demand. Then, a robust econometric model is created and adjusted to account for issues such as multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and serial correlation. Finally, the project results are explained and the most significant factors of demand for the U.S. black market are identified. This project exists to find patterns which exist in the significance of variables in the presence of changing levels of buyer risk and external social cost. The paper concludes by providing advice on how the American regulatory environment can be adjusted to best shrink and defend against buyers in American black markets.

Baseline Data Collection.xlsx (212 kB)
Original Raw Dataset for Analyzed Markets

Football Ticket Scalping Data Analysis.xlsx (1258 kB)
Econometric Analysis of The Scalped Football Ticket Market

Opioid Data Analysis.xlsx (1225 kB)
Econometric Analysis of the Illicit Opioids Market

Sex Trafficking Data Analysis.xlsx (1886 kB)
Econometric Analysis of the Sex Trafficking Market

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